Major COVID-19 Outbreak Looms Large in China
China is struggling with by far its worst COVID-19 surge since the initial outbreak in 2020, recording more than 1,500 cases per day across multiple cities. The new outbreak is driven by the fast-spreading omicron variant, and many cases are asymptomatic and tricky to detect. Even if this doesn’t become a full-blown epidemic, it is already straining the system.
Authorities have already put Shenzhen, the giant manufacturing hub near Hong Kong, into full lockdown, along with Jilin province. In Shanghai, schools and businesses have already closed, and numerous Beijing and Tianjin compounds have shut down. With more than 50 million people already locked down across China, it seems likely that list will continue to grow in the coming weeks, along with case numbers.
As best can be judged, the Chinese public has reacted to the outbreak with both shock and complaints, similar to the Xian lockdown earlier this year. The mood contrasts with that of early 2020, when there was a sense of solidarity amid considerable fear. But COVID-19 restrictions, combined with the economic slowdown and increasing censorship, have frayed public goodwill. People living under lockdown have complained about poor coordination and sudden quarantine orders, along with deep uncertainty about what comes next.
It’s still possible that China will bring this outbreak under control, as it did in Wuhan in 2020, even with the additional burden of omicron’s high transmissibility. China’s lockdowns are thorough, and it is willing to conduct tests on a massive scale. But even if the control measures work this time, the country remains in danger of becoming stuck in a costly cycle of outbreak and lockdown. Chinese scientists have hinted at finding a way out, but a path away from the zero-COVID-19 policy doesn’t seem to be there yet.
Although a vital part of COVID-19 control, China’s centralized quarantine hospitals are also grim places: Businessman Carl Setzer recounts his experience inside one after an unexpected positive test. Furthermore, judging by comments in private message groups, some low-level corruption seems to have sprung up around the COVID-19 control system, with connected hotels, delivery groups, and catering enterprises securing effective monopolies.
China’s nightmare scenario is currently happening in Hong Kong, where after two years of pursuing a goal of no COVID-19 cases, omicron has spread like wildfire in the last three weeks, resulting in the world’s highest death rate per capita. That is in part because of Hong Kong’s density, but it’s also because of a very low vaccination rate among elderly residents, with just 15 percent of those in care homes fully vaccinated. New Zealand, which has also had a major outbreak after maintaining a zero-COVID-19 policy, has seen just 102 deaths thanks to universal vaccination.
China doesn’t have a politicized anti-vaccination movement like the United States. But while the overall vaccination rate is about 86 percent, it is much lower among the elderly, with only about 50 percent of those over 80 years old vaccinated. Elderly people are more likely to live in remote rural areas, are more nervous about vaccine side effects, and don’t face the pressures of showing vaccination permits to travel or go to work. Since China has also kept COVID-19 under control for nearly two years, there was—until now—not much sense of danger.
On top of that, although the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine was widely available in Hong Kong, people in mainland China have only been vaccinated with Chinese-made vaccines, which are demonstrably less effective than the mRNA vaccines. China has the funds to acquire mRNA vaccines, but it has spent the last year sowing disinformation about Western vaccines. Distributing them now could be politically embarrassing or boost public distrust. There is a campaign to develop a domestic mRNA vaccine, but it is still a long way off.
An unmitigated outbreak in China could be a disaster for the political leadership. Hong Kong has already seen calls for its Chief Executive Carrie Lam to “resign in shame,” even from conservative, pro-mainland figures. Although the information environment on the mainland is more controlled, 2022 will be a difficult year for Chinese President Xi Jinping as he solidifies an unprecedented third term as party chairman and president.
The lockdowns in China will likely have a grievous effect on supply chains, especially given the cities already involved. Shanghai is China’s largest port, and Shenzhen is its main manufacturing hub for exported goods. To some degree, factories already have coronavirus lockdown plans in place that may allow production to continue without much impediment, but transport will be an issue given the scale of new controls.